Risk flag: 中国高速传动 (00658.HK) remains suspended — sell immediately on resumption per portfolio mandate.
May wholesale (units)
97,431
+8.2% YoY
Overseas / total
34.1%
+5.3pp YoY
NEV penetration
28.7%
+9.1pp YoY
H/A premium
−12.4%
H-share discount widens
Composite signal scoreBULLISH
62
/100
Volume78
Satellite72
Sentiment55
Positioning42
Mgmt quality27
Monthly wholesale trend (units '000)
Geographic revenue heatmap — key markets (estimated ASP × volume, USD mn)
China domestic
Haval H6
$847MTank 300/400
$672MWEY
$390MOra EV
$285MOverseas markets
Russia
$712MBrazil
$487MSouth Africa
$298MThailand/SEA
$221MMonthly traffic index (satellite proxy)
Jul '25Jun '26 (est.)
Near-term catalyst timeline
Brazil Iracemápolis Phase 2 capex decision Q3 2026
Russia Tula — H2 production schedule Aug 2026
H-share interim results Aug 2026
NEV: Hi4-T hybrid adoption data Monthly
00658.HK trading suspension — monitor URGENT
Data sources: CPCA wholesale tracker, 乘联会 retail survey, dealer check calls, AutoHome/懂车帝 order index, 互动易 IR disclosures.
May CPCA retail (units)
84,219
+6.1% YoY
Wholesale-retail spread
+13.2K
Inventory build signal
Overseas May shipments
33,218
+22% YoY · record high
Volume by brand (May 2026, units)
Overseas split (YTD 2026)
Dealer channel checks — May 2026 pulse
| Region | Model | Lead time (wks) | Discount vs. MSRP | Inventory days | Dealer sentiment | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier-1 cities | Tank 300 Hi4-T | 6–8 | +1.2% (premium) | 18 | Strong | BUY |
| Tier-1 cities | Tank 400 Hi4-T | 4–6 | Flat | 24 | Solid | BUY |
| Tier-2/3 | Haval H6 DHT | 1–2 | −3.1% | 42 | Competitive | HOLD |
| Tier-2/3 | Haval Jolion | 0–1 | −5.8% | 58 | Soft | WATCH |
| Russia | Haval F7 (Tula) | 3–4 | +2.4% (premium) | 21 | Very strong | BUY |
| Brazil | Haval H6 / Jolion | 5–7 | Flat | 28 | Growing | BUY |
| Thailand | Ora Good Cat | 2–3 | −2.0% | 35 | Mixed | HOLD |
AutoHome order index vs. CPCA retail (6M, indexed to 100)
Satellite imagery proxies: Planet Labs / RS Metrics lot utilization, Orbital Insight vehicle count. Updated weekly. Bayou Bend framework for factory activity scoring.
Baoding plant utilization
88.4%
+6pp vs. Q1 avg
Tula (Russia) activity
74.2%
Below nameplate — CKD vs. local
Iracemápolis (Brazil)
61.8%
Ramping — Phase 1
Baoding HQ — parking lot vehicle count index
Tula plant — production activity score
Global factory activity tracker
| Facility | Country | Capacity (K units/yr) | Satellite util. % | QoQ change | Localization rate | Key risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baoding Main | China | 600 | 88.4% | +6.1pp | 94% | Low |
| Chongqing | China | 200 | 76.3% | +2.8pp | 92% | Low |
| Tula | Russia | 150 | 74.2% | −1.4pp | 38% | Sanctions |
| Kaliningrad SKD | Russia | 40 | 62.1% | Flat | 12% | High |
| Iracemápolis | Brazil | 100 | 61.8% | +14.2pp | 28% | Mover risk |
| Rayong CKD | Thailand | 80 | 48.3% | −3.1pp | 22% | Overcapacity |
| General Assembly | South Africa | 30 | 81.2% | +8.7pp | 18% | Low |
Battery cell cost (CNY/kWh)
¥428
−11% YoY · margin tailwind
Steel HRC (Shanghai, CNY/t)
¥3,420
+4.2% MoM
Semiconductor lead time
14 wks
Normalized from 32 wks peak
Tier-1 supplier financial health monitor
| Supplier | Component | GWM revenue % | DSO (days) | Credit watch | Alt. source | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATL | LFP/NCM cells | ~18% | 68 | AA | BYD cells | Low |
| Bosch | ABS / ESP | ~8% | 45 | AAA | Bethel Auto | Low |
| Huawei | Cockpit / LIDAR | ~6% | 52 | Strong | Limited | Medium |
| Valeo | ADAS cameras | ~4% | 55 | A+ | Mobileye | Low |
| Eaton | e-Axle (Russia) | ~3% | 82 | Watch | Kehua | HIGH |
| Denso | Thermal mgmt | ~5% | 48 | AA | MAHLE | Low |
Key input cost index (indexed Jan 2024 = 100)
Russia sanctions exposure — component risk matrix
CRITICAL RISK
Western electronics, ADAS chips, OBD software
MEDIUM RISK
e-Axle, precision machining, tire imports
MITIGATED
Steel (local), glass, seats, HVAC, paint
NLP sources: 互动易, Weibo, Autohome reviews, EV-圈, 懂车帝, earnings call transcripts. Sentiment model: FinBERT-CN fine-tuned on automotive corpus.
Overall tone score
+0.12
Mildly positive
互动易 Q&A volume
847
+34% MoM · management responsive
Consumer review score
4.18/5
↑ 0.08 vs. 3M ago
Analyst tone (calls)
+0.31
Positive bias on Tank mix
Sentiment trend (6M rolling, 30-day MA)
Topic frequency — 互动易 Q&A (May 2026)
Brazil Phase 2
147 mentionsDividend policy
96 mentionsTank 500 Hi4-T
87 mentionsH/A price gap
71 mentionsRussia risk
51 mentionsShare buyback
42 mentionsWELLY NEV launch
33 mentions Earnings call transcript NLP — management guidance signals
| Topic | Management language | Change vs. prior call | Analyst pushback | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overseas margins | "confident, sustainable" | More specific ↑ | Medium | Positive |
| NEV profitability | "approaching breakeven in H2" | More concrete ↑ | High | Watch |
| Russia volume | "stable, long-term partnership" | Hedged language | Very high | Cautious |
| ASP trends | "Tank mix lifting blended ASP" | Consistent ↑ | Low | Positive |
| CAPEX / FCF | "disciplined, returns-focused" | Less specific vs. Q4 | Medium | Neutral |
Data: CCASS custodian flows, HKEX short-selling disclosure, options OI from HKEx, H/A premium from Bloomberg. Updated T+1.
Short interest (% float)
4.2%
Below squeeze threshold 8%
CCASS net flow (5D)
+12.4M
Institutional accumulation
Put/Call OI ratio
1.87×
Put skew — hedging elevated
H/A premium
−12.4%
H at 12.4% discount to A
CCASS top-10 custodian flows (30D, shares mn)
| Custodian | Role type | 30D change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| HKSCC (Southbound) | Retail + mainland inst | +28.4M | Strong |
| HSBC Broking | Mixed / institutional | +8.2M | Buy |
| Citi Global Markets | Long-only | +6.1M | Buy |
| JPMorgan | Hedge fund / prop | −4.8M | Trim |
| ABN AMRO Clearing | HFT / PTG (Optiver, IMC) | +0.2M | Neutral |
| BofA Securities | Long-only / passive | +3.4M | Buy |
| UBS AG | Mixed | −2.1M | Trim |
Options OI by strike — near expiry
H/A premium trend vs. short interest overlay
Short squeeze scorecard (02333.HK)
| Metric | Current | Squeeze threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short interest % float | 4.2% | > 8% | Not yet |
| Borrow pool utilization | 38% | > 70% | Loose |
| Annualized borrow rate | 1.8% | > 5% | Cheap |
| Days to cover | 4.1 | < 2 | No pressure |
| ITM put OI (δ > 0.5) | HK$7.5 strike | Large ITM pile | Watch delta hedge |
| H/A convergence trigger | −12.4% discount | Discount narrows < 5% | Far from trigger |
Buy-side research checklist — Capital Group / Fidelity standard
| Category | Item | Status | Last updated | Owner note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUNDAMENTAL | 3-statement model (monthly update) | Done | Jun 2026 | Base / bear / bull scenarios live |
| DCF intrinsic value — base case | Done | Jun 2026 | WACC 9.4%, TV 2.5% | |
| Comparable comps (BYD, Geely, SAIC) | Partial | May 2026 | Needs Geely H1 update | |
| ALT DATA | CPCA / 乘联会 monthly scrape | Live | Jun 1 | Auto-pull pipeline |
| Satellite factory utilization (Planet Labs) | Live | Weekly | Baoding, Tula, Brazil | |
| Dealer channel checks (10 cities) | Live | Monthly | Lead time + discount data | |
| 互动易 NLP scraper (FinBERT-CN) | Live | Daily | 847 Q&A entries analyzed | |
| MICRO | CCASS custodian flow tracker (T+1) | Live | Daily | Top-10 custodians monitored |
| Options OI delta-hedge model | Partial | Weekly | ITM put analysis at HK$7.5 | |
| Short interest / borrow pool monitor | Live | Daily | 4.2% short, loose borrow | |
| GEOPOLITICAL | Russia sanctions risk tier matrix | Done | Jun 2026 | Component-level tiering |
| Brazil Mover program policy tracker | Partial | May 2026 | Phase 2 incentive terms TBC | |
| RMB appreciation impact (ASP effect) | Done | Jun 2026 | Japan 1990s textile analogy mapped | |
| GOVERNANCE | Management quality score | Done | Jun 2026 | 2.7/10 — significant concern flagged |
| IR engagement log (互动易 questions) | Done | Q1 2026 | Brazil Phase 2, Russia localization IRQs sent | |
| PORTFOLIO | Position sizing / portfolio weight | Done | Current | Tracked in 16-pos framework |
| Stop-loss / position exit triggers | Needed | — | Define clear sell discipline |
Open research questions — IR call agenda
Brazil: What is the actual local content % achieved at Iracemápolis vs. Mover program threshold (40% by 2025)?
Russia: What % of Tula components are sanctioned-country-origin? Has SWIFT workaround been tested at scale?
Tank brand ASP: Is the CNY 250K+ pricing sustainable as BYD and Li Auto move upmarket?
Governance: What are WEY CEO compensation structures vs. Haval? Equity incentive vesting reset?
NEV: Target gross margin and timeline to positive FCF for Ora + WEY NEV divisions?